The Week Ahead

The Setup

The regime remains one of stagflationary pressure — an economy fighting sticky inflation and slowing growth at the same time — but the ground shifted hard this past week. A shock July jobs report showed the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs against forecasts for an 83,000 gain, and prior months were revised down by a combined 146,000, flipping the Fed narrative from "when is the next hike" to "will they hold."

At the same time, crude oil cooled from roughly $92 in late July to $81.96, pulling some of the energy-driven inflation threat off the table. Our posture stays U.S.-equity overweight (a larger-than-normal position) with AI infrastructure favored, gold held as a structural inflation hedge, and duration — longer-dated government bonds — underweight. The week is built around three inflation prints: July CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, and retail sales on Friday, the data that decides whether the Fed's September 16 meeting delivers a hold or the first cut.

Equities

Two names anchor the AI-infrastructure watchlist. $AVGO trades at $427.76, comfortably above its 50-day moving average near $395 (the average price over the last 50 trading sessions, a common gauge of the medium-term trend) and its 200-day near $368, with a relative strength reading around 65 — momentum that is firm but not yet stretched into overbought territory. The catalyst is Applied Materials earnings on Thursday, which reads across the entire semiconductor-equipment chain that Broadcom sits within. $NVDA has recovered to $223.96, up more than 2% on the week and back above both its 50-day (~$206) and 200-day (~$194) averages, with a similar RSI near 64 (RSI is a momentum gauge showing whether something is overbought or oversold). We are watching both as the broadening semiconductor complex rather than a single-stock bet — this regime rewards owning the picks-and-shovels of AI over chasing one leader.

Crypto & Digital Assets

Bitcoin sits near $64,900, holding just above its 50-day average (~$63,300) with a momentum reading around 55 — balanced, neither overbought nor oversold. The story is flows: spot Bitcoin ETFs (funds that let people own Bitcoin through a regular brokerage account) pulled in $754.69 million last week, their best showing since April, with BlackRock's $IBIT capturing roughly 76% of the intake and total Bitcoin ETF assets now near $80 billion. The development to track is in Washington, where the CLARITY Act — the bill that would split crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC and hand the market a clear federal rulebook — missed its pre-recess deadline and now waits until at least September, with the Senate out through September 11; Pantera has framed that regulatory clarity as the gate for the next institutional leg.

Single-Family Real Estate

Housing is where the rate regime bites hardest. The average 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.69% last week per Freddie Mac, the highest in roughly a year, with some purchase quotes near 6.93% — a direct consequence of long-term bond yields staying elevated even as the Fed pauses. The offset for buyers is real: inventory is improving, listing prices sit modestly below year-ago levels, and negotiating power is tilting back toward buyers with more choices on the market. The investor takeaway is that with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.65%, financing costs will not ease materially until the long end of the bond market does — so cash flow and patience beat leverage in this window.

The Convergence Read

The strongest convergence across the desks lands on the two trades we have carried. JPMorgan targets gold at $6,000–6,300 by year-end, and the metal is validating that call — $GLD closed at $398.47, up 2.3% on the week, while gold miners ran harder, $GDX gaining more than 7%. Morgan Stanley's BEAT desk stays overweight U.S. small- and mid-cap stocks and underweight large-cap, a bet that a Fed which has stopped hiking lets the broader market catch up to the mega-caps. Read together, the message is a barbell: own the AI-infrastructure and precious-metals winners, and let the breadth trade — smaller companies and the semiconductor complex — do the work as the rate ceiling comes into view.

Educational content. Not financial advice. PM Capital Group provides market intelligence and financial education.